With 23 matches down and the group stages hitting their climax, the race for the World Cup 2026 semifinals has turned into a mathematical thriller. While some teams have one foot in the door, others are relying on calculators and miracles.
Here are the calculated chances for each team to reach the Knockout Stage based on remaining fixtures, Head-to-Head (H2H) records, and current Net Run Rate (NRR).
GROUP A: The “Group of Death” Deadlock 💀
Current Situation: Three teams tied on 6 points (ENG, IND, NZ).
| Team | Current Pts | Remaining Opponents | Semifinal Chance | Verdict |
| 🇮🇳 India | 6 | WI, ENG, NZ | 90% 🚀 | Favorites. With favorable H2H records against all remaining rivals (including a 100% record vs WI), India controls their own destiny. 2 wins guarantee a spot. |
| 🏴 England | 6 | BAN, WI | 75% 🔥 | Strong Position. Their superior NRR (+2.01) is basically an extra point. However, they must be wary: historical stats show they have a 0% win ratevs West Indies in this dataset. A slip-up there opens the door for NZ. |
| 🇳🇿 New Zealand | 6 | WI | 30% ⚠️ | In Danger. Despite having points on the board, they have played one more game than WI. They likely finish on 8 points, which might not be enough if England and India win their remaining games. |
| 🇧🇩 Bangladesh | 4 | ENG, NZ, WI | 10% 🤞 | Dark Horse. To qualify, they need to beat England AND New Zealand. While their H2H stats are surprisingly good (100% vs ENG), their poor NRR (-1.32) is a massive anchor dragging them down. |
| 🏝️ West Indies | 2 | NZ, IND, BAN, ENG | <5% ❌ | Near Impossible. They need to win 3 of their last 4 games, including beating table-toppers India and England. |
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GROUP B: The Big Three Battle ⚔️
Current Situation: Pakistan clear at the top; Australia vs. South Africa for the 2nd spot.
| Team | Current Pts | Remaining Opponents | Semifinal Chance | Verdict |
| 🇵🇰 Pakistan | 8 | SL, SA, AUS | 99% 🔒 | Virtually Qualified. Sitting on 8 points, just one more win (or a few washouts) seals the deal. Even if they lose all three, their current points tally might still be enough mathematically. |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | 6 | SL, SA, AFG | 85% 📈 | Drivers Seat. The match against South Africa (Match 31) is the “Quarter-Final”. Historical stats give Australia a 100% win rate vs the Proteas. If that holds true, Australia qualifies comfortably. |
| 🇿🇦 South Africa | 4 | PAK, SL, AFG | 20% 📉 | The Chasers. Their NRR (+3.28) is world-class, but points matter more. They must beat Australia in Match 31 to have any realistic chance. A loss there likely ends their tournament. |
| 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka | 2 | AUS, AFG, PAK, SA | <1% 🚫 | Calculators Broken. Needs to win all 4 remaining games against the group’s strongest teams. |
| 🇦🇫 Afghanistan | 2 | AUS, SA | 0% 💀 | Eliminated. Mathematically out of the semifinal race. |
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🔮 The Prediction
Based on the probability model, the most likely semifinal lineup is:
- 🇮🇳 India (Group A Winner)
- 🏴 England (Group A Runner-up)
- 🇵🇰 Pakistan (Group B Winner)
- 🇦🇺 Australia (Group B Runner-up)
Key Match to Watch: 🇿🇦 South Africa vs Australia (Match 31). If the Proteas win this, they flip the Group B percentages entirely!